Debtor Nations

CNN’s web page had an interesting slideshow this past week. It was the top 20 debtor nations in the world. Most nations on the list were members of the European Common Market. In fact Greece one of the large debtors, has been in the news for possible default on its debt, shaking confidence in the stock market.

Not making the headlines are several other European countries that are even worse off financially than Greece: Spain, Portugal, and Ireland, the worst of the lot.

In my minimal background of economics, when your debt equals 500X to 1000X times your GDP…your bankrupt! This is the sad state of most of the European Union. Theirs is not a mere recession; it is a state of disaster. One has to pause and wonder if all those social programs like universal healthcare, subsidized housing, etc. are not to blame.

The debt is so high, that other than default, recovery not only is impossible; their current level of living seems unsustainable.

The United States, by the way, is also on the debtor list at #20. Our own level of “lifestyle” is also unsustainable.

OK, new direction in stocks and ETFs is working...up $4,000 on Friday!   I still think the market will be down for the year.  Why you ask?  As Iran gets closer to a nuclear weapon, Israel will attack and the region will erupt into limited nuclear war...I see this happening by the end of 2010.......Oil will rise to $200 to $300 + per barrel, world economy will fall 25% to 50% of current levels.

Of course eternal, warm fuzzy optimists will dismiss this negative thinking.  Meanwhile those with money and forsight have stockpiles of food and bunkers in remote areas!  At least a plan and a 72 hr Kit.

Short Chinese Market, Invest in Berkshire Hathaway "B"

OK, I moved $100,000+ out of DXD, a market shorting ETF and bought BRK'B stock for a change of direction.  Still going to short the Chinese market for a month or so!

I see no long term reasons for optimisim that the market will hit 11,000+.

Check out the new contest on CNBC.com.......you get to pick the market close of the DOW and the S & P.  It's fun and they post the top 25 closest.  You have to pick before 12:00 noon EST.

Selling Short is Good

OK, one week after going 100% short, I am up $10,000.  No wonder brokers are rich bastards...they make money on a up market and a down market by the bushel basket full.

My next experiment......shorting the dollar.

100% Short.........an Experiment in Doom!

OK, last Friday, I dumped all my stocks, gold, etc. and went 100% into shorting the market with DXD.  Monday and Tuesday I lost a total of $6,000.  Today I am up $600.

Since a variety of market forcasters are predicting a "Correction" of between 15% to as much as 50% by May, I think, I'll stick to shorting the market for a week or so and see the results.

My portfolio after the last MSNBC Stock contest was $50,000 in January 2008.......today it is $123,000!  Must be doing something right.